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| Criterion |  Agile Affinity Estimation |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When many tasks need to be classified quickly, it sorts them by perceived effort and similarity. It reduces the effort of fine-grained estimation for large volumes. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min | 60-120 min | 1-5 Tage | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-12 | 2-8 | Nutzertraffic | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Affinity Size Map, Grouped Estimates, Unclear Items | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |