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| Criterion |  Growth A/B Testing |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 2-4 h | 1-5 Tage | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-6 | 3-8 | Nutzertraffic | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Experiment results, Decision log, Learning summary | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |