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| Criterion |  Growth A/B Testing |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 1-4 Wochen | 10-30 min je Item | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 1-6 | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Async | Async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Experiment results, Decision log, Learning summary | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note |
Tagsno overlap | ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth |