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| Criterion |  Operations A3 Problem Solving |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | For a complex deviation with several people involved, the method bundles problem, analysis, and decision onto one page. It creates a shared working space where causes, countermeasures, and follow-up fit together. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 45-90 min | 15-45 min | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-5 | 2-8 | 1-8 | 2-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | A3 Report, Action Plan, Root Cause Analysis | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | LeanProblem solvingCoachingOperations | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |