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Kepner-Tregoe

A practical method guide: clarify prerequisites and materials, understand the complete process, and look up outputs, pitfalls, and stop criteria.

ComplexityHigh
Time2-8 h
Participants2-8
FormatWorkshop + async
MaturityCanonical
Plan
01

Prerequisite

What needs to be finished first

Complete firstFacts and authority

Observations, expected state and responsible people are available.

Treat missing facts as an investigation task.
02

Preparation

What needs to be ready before start

Materials

Concern list, IS/IS NOT comparison, decision criteria, alternatives and risk plan.

People / roles

Domain experts, process owners, decision maker and experienced facilitator.

Pre-read

Collect concerns, facts, impact and ownership; first choose the needed analysis route.

Time needed

Multiple analysis blocks as needed; 45–90 minutes each

Setup

Sort concerns first; prepare separate workspaces for IS/IS NOT, decision criteria and plan risks.

03

Core question

The one question this method answers

Do we need situation appraisal, cause analysis, a decision or safeguards for a plan?

04

Flow

Phases with goal, actions, output and pitfall

Kepner-Tregoe provides distinct thinking processes for situation appraisal, problem analysis, decision analysis and safeguarding plans. Situation Appraisal identifies the needed process; not every concern passes through all of them.

Kepner-Tregoe· worksheet

Fictional example

Kepner-Tregoe provides distinct thinking processes for situation appraisal, problem analysis, decision analysis and safeguarding plans. Situation Appraisal identifies the needed process; not every concern passes through all of them.

Situation Appraisal

What concerns exist and which analysis route fits each?

Fictional: registrations fail since Tuesday; cause unknown. Problem Analysis first, choice of correction afterwards.

IS / IS NOT

What, where, when and to what extent does the deviation occur or not occur?

IS: mobile Safari, form version 4, since Tuesday, 18 of 60 attempts. IS NOT: desktop, version 3, Monday.

Distinction, change, test

Which change explains all facts and how is it verified?

Hypothesis: new date field. Reverting only that field removes failure in a reproducible test; review remaining distinctions.

Must, want, risk

Which options pass must criteria and differ in benefits and risk?

Must: no data loss, deploy today. Rollback passes; full redesign fails. Want: low operating effort; risk: old usability issue returns.

Prevention and contingency

Which problem do we prevent and what trigger starts which response?

Test data compatibility before rollback. If failure rate rises after deployment, Jan stops rollout and activates the tested prior version.

All example details are fictional and illustrate the application.

Kepner-Tregoe: FAQs

  1. 1

    Situation

    Situation Appraisal

    Goal

    Analysis briefs

    Inputs for this step

    • Concerns
    • Impact

    Actions

    • Separate concerns and prioritise by current impact, urgency and development.
    • Assign an analysis route, owner and next date for each.

    Output

    Analysis briefs

    Is the needed thinking process clear per concern?

    Quality check

    Is the needed thinking process clear per concern?

    Pitfall

    An unknown cause is bypassed with a quick choice. Frame deviation and decision separately.

    Timing: 20–40 minutes

  2. 2

    Problem

    Problem Analysis

    Goal

    Verified cause

    Inputs for this step

    • Deviation data
    • Comparison cases

    Actions

    • Describe the deviation by What, Where, When and Extent as IS and IS NOT.
    • Link distinctions and changes to hypotheses; test each against all facts and verify it.

    Output

    Verified cause

    Does the cause explain IS and IS NOT consistently?

    Quality check

    Does the cause explain IS and IS NOT consistently?

    Pitfall

    The first plausible explanation is accepted. Check counterexamples and changes; plan a verification test.

    Timing: 45–90 minutes

  3. 3

    Decision

    Decision Analysis

    Goal

    Reasoned choice

    Inputs for this step

    • Objective
    • Criteria and options

    Actions

    • State the decision objective; screen must criteria and compare eligible alternatives on weighted wants.
    • Assess risks of promising options separately before deciding.

    Output

    Reasoned choice

    Does the selected option meet all must criteria?

    Quality check

    Does the selected option meet all must criteria?

    Pitfall

    High want scores compensate for a failed must. Exclude ineligible options before weighted comparison.

    Timing: 45–90 minutes

  4. 4

    Plan risks

    Potential Problem Analysis

    Goal

    Safeguarded plan

    Inputs for this step

    • Selected plan
    • Critical steps

    Actions

    • Name critical plan steps and potential problems with causes; define preventive actions.
    • Agree contingency, trigger and owner if the problem occurs.

    Output

    Safeguarded plan

    Are prevention and response with trigger distinct?

    Quality check

    Are prevention and response with trigger distinct?

    Pitfall

    A risk note has no action attached. Add prevention or a prepared response with ownership.

    Timing: 30–60 minutes

05

Artifact

What comes out at the end

Sketch: what the artifact looks like

Kepner-Tregoe · ProblemanalyseSituation, Problem, Entscheidung und Risiko werden als getrennte Analyseprozesse sauber auseinandergehalten
Kepner-TregoeDas Visual zeigt Situationsklärung, Ist-Ist-nicht-Problemanalyse, Entscheidungsanalyse und Risikoplanung als getrennte Denkprozesse.Komplexe Probleme in saubere Analyseprozesse trennenKT hält Situation, Ursache, Entscheidung und Risiko auseinander, damit Teams nicht vorschnell springen.Fakten trennenUrsachen testenRisiko absichernSituationThemen sortieren undPriorität setzenProblem AnalysisDimensionISTIST NICHTUnterschiedWas?Fehler AFehler Bneuer FlowWo?Region NordRegion SüdKonfigurationWann?seit Releasevorher nichtDeploymentAusmaß?10 % Sessionsandere normalKohorteDecision AnalysisOptionen an Muss- undWunschkriterien prüfenPotential ProblemsRisiken, Trigger und Maßnahmenplanen
Form

Prioritised analysis brief and appropriate outputs: verified cause, reasoned decision or safeguarded plan.

Versioning / ownership

Record date and scope; retain the previous version and reason when changing it.

Tool alternatives
  • Structured document
  • Fact and criteria tables
  • Workshop board with four process areas

kepner-tregoe-working-template.md

Collect concerns, facts, impact and ownership; first choose the needed analysis route.

Kepner-Tregoe: Worksheet

Question

To be confirmed

Desired outcome

To be confirmed

Scope

Complete cycle Time: Multiple analysis blocks as needed; 45–90 minutes each

Complete this worksheet on paper or in your own document during the work.

Preparation for this scope

Method setup

  • Materials: Concern list, IS/IS NOT comparison, decision criteria, alternatives and risk plan.
  • Roles: Domain experts, process owners, decision maker and experienced facilitator.
  • Advance information: Collect concerns, facts, impact and ownership; first choose the needed analysis route.
  • Overall time needed: Multiple analysis blocks as needed; 45–90 minutes each
  • Setup: Sort concerns first; prepare separate workspaces for IS/IS NOT, decision criteria and plan risks.

Prepare for the work steps

Situation: Situation Appraisal

  • Concerns
  • Impact

Problem: Problem Analysis

  • Deviation data
  • Comparison cases

Decision: Decision Analysis

  • Objective
  • Criteria and options

Plan risks: Potential Problem Analysis

  • Selected plan
  • Critical steps

Kepner-Tregoe· worksheet

Situation Appraisal

What concerns exist and which analysis route fits each?

...

IS / IS NOT

What, where, when and to what extent does the deviation occur or not occur?

...

Distinction, change, test

Which change explains all facts and how is it verified?

...

Must, want, risk

Which options pass must criteria and differ in benefits and risk?

...

Prevention and contingency

Which problem do we prevent and what trigger starts which response?

...

Answer the prompts with your own information. Explicitly mark unknowns and assumptions.

Kepner-Tregoe: FAQs

Situation: Situation Appraisal

Expected artifact: Analysis briefs

Is the needed thinking process clear per concern?

Entry:

...

  • Is the needed thinking process clear per concern?

Problem: Problem Analysis

Expected artifact: Verified cause

Does the cause explain IS and IS NOT consistently?

Entry:

...

  • Does the cause explain IS and IS NOT consistently?

Decision: Decision Analysis

Expected artifact: Reasoned choice

Does the selected option meet all must criteria?

Entry:

...

  • Does the selected option meet all must criteria?

Plan risks: Potential Problem Analysis

Expected artifact: Safeguarded plan

Are prevention and response with trigger distinct?

Entry:

...

  • Are prevention and response with trigger distinct?

Open questions and next steps

...

Method guide: https://methodatlas.meierhoff-systems.de/en/methods/kepner-tregoe/run-sheet

06

Example output

Concrete filled scenario, fictional example

Fictional example for orientation. Counts and timings describe this case and are not universal requirements.

kepner-tregoe-beispiel.md

Concrete filled scenario, fictional example

Fictional example

Situation Appraisal: Fictional: registrations fail since Tuesday; cause unknown. Problem Analysis first, choice of correction afterwards.

IS / IS NOT: IS: mobile Safari, form version 4, since Tuesday, 18 of 60 attempts. IS NOT: desktop, version 3, Monday.

Distinction, change, test: Hypothesis: new date field. Reverting only that field removes failure in a reproducible test; review remaining distinctions.

Must, want, risk: Must: no data loss, deploy today. Rollback passes; full redesign fails. Want: low operating effort; risk: old usability issue returns.

Prevention and contingency: Test data compatibility before rollback. If failure rate rises after deployment, Jan stops rollout and activates the tested prior version.

07

Pitfalls

Recognize symptoms and steer against them

Quick overview, the full text is in the matching phase in the flow

  1. Situation AppraisalAn unknown cause is bypassed with a quick choice.View in phase
  2. Problem AnalysisThe first plausible explanation is accepted.View in phase
  3. Decision AnalysisHigh want scores compensate for a failed must.View in phase
  4. Potential Problem AnalysisA risk note has no action attached.View in phase
08

Stop criteria

When to pause, resolve prerequisites, or choose another approach

If conjecture replaces evidence, gather missing data in the appropriate process; do not confirm cause from plausibility alone.

Method after Praxisgemeinschaft. The method emerged as a widespread practice and is not clearly attributed to a single originator or organization. Curated with 2 sources.

Sources: Kepner-Tregoe: FAQs, Kepner-Tregoe: PSDM Prework

Flow, timeboxes, and pitfalls are editorially curated practice recommendations based on the listed sources.

Where to go next?

Paper fishbone diagram with a measurable effect at the head and six labeled cause branches.
Operations
Fishbone Diagram

Deepens the chosen cause clarification with a structured cause search.

Paper illustration of a decision table with criteria rows, weighted ratings, and a narrowly leading alternative.
Decision Making
Decision Matrix

Evaluates the chosen decision options against fixed criteria.

View in playbookNarrow Down and Sustainably Fix a Technical Root CauseMove from a precise problem specification through structured cause investigation to a documented 8D report.

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