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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 1-3 h | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 10-30 min je Item |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 4-10 | 1-8 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | LeanFlowWasteDelivery | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting |