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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 1-3 h | 45-90 min | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 4-10 | 2-8 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | LeanFlowWasteDelivery | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | ForecastingFlowDelivery |