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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making Risk Matrix |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When a project faces many possible disruptions, it quickly becomes unclear which risks deserve attention first. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Risk Matrix and a Top Risk List. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 30-60 min | 5-20 min | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 3-10 | 3-20 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Risk Matrix, Top Risk List | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | RiskDecisionPrioritizationAssessment | EstimationEffortRisk | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |