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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Engineering Failure Scenario Analysis |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 20–45 min | 1-3 h | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | Small cross-functional group | 3-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Failure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response Actions | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | FailureResilienceRisk | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |