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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Decision Tree |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | For decisions with follow-on paths and dependencies, a linear comparison is often not enough. A Decision Tree shows how options branch under conditions and which consequences hang on each branch. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 20–45 min | 30-90 min | 5-20 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | Small cross-functional group | 1-6 | 3-20 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Decision Tree, Option Map, Assumption List | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | DecisionTreeOptions | EstimationEffortRisk |