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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Agile NoEstimates |  Delivery Cost of Delay |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | Helps clarify scope, order, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, constraints, and sequence manageable. The result is captured as a Cost of Delay table and prioritization sequence. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | laufend | 90-180 min | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 2-12 | 3-8 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | CoD Table, Prioritization Sequence | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | EstimationForecastingFlow | PrioritizationDeliveryEconomicsDecision | ForecastingFlowDelivery |