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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Agile NoEstimates |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | laufend | 1-3 h | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 2-12 | 1-8 | 1-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | EstimationForecastingFlow | SensemakingDecisionRationale | ForecastingFlowDelivery |