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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 1-8 | 2-6 | 2-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | ForecastingFlowDelivery | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |