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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 15-45 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 1-8 | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |