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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Agile NoEstimates |  Engineering Kanban |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | When work sits in too many parallel streams, throughput suffers and no one sees the bottlenecks. Kanban makes the flow of work visible and limits overload so a system becomes calmer and more predictable. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | laufend | Ongoing |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 1-8 | 2-12 | 2-12 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Kanban board, WIP policies, Flow metrics |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationForecastingFlow | FlowVisual managementDelivery |