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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Product Discovery Learning Card |  Product Discovery MVP Test Matrix |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | The Learning Card connects traceable test results to a reasoned next action while keeping the limits of the insight visible. | When several minimal variants compete to answer the same question, it makes comparing and choosing between them cleaner. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Test Matrix and a Test Plan. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 25-40 min | 45-75 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 1-8 | 1-5 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Learning Card with evidence and next action | Test Matrix, Test Plan |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | ForecastingFlowDelivery | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryLearning | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryOptions |