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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Product Discovery Dual-Track Agile |  Agile NoEstimates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When uncertainty and delivery run in parallel, it separates learning work from implementation while keeping both connected. It prevents unvalidated ideas from falling directly into the delivery stream. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | Laufend, Wochen bis Monate | laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 1-8 | 4-10 | 2-12 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Discovery Backlog, Delivery Backlog, Experiment-Ergebnisse, Validierte Stories | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | ForecastingFlowDelivery | AgileDiscoveryDelivery | EstimationForecastingFlow |