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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Product Discovery Dual-Track Agile |  Agile Ideal Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When uncertainty and delivery run in parallel, it separates learning work from implementation while keeping both connected. It prevents unvalidated ideas from falling directly into the delivery stream. | When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | Laufend, Wochen bis Monate | 15-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 1-8 | 4-10 | 2-9 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Discovery Backlog, Delivery Backlog, Experiment-Ergebnisse, Validierte Stories | Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity Caveats |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | ForecastingFlowDelivery | AgileDiscoveryDelivery | EstimationEffortAgile |