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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Operations Fault Tree Analysis |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | For a critical top event with several possible triggers, the method logically models failure paths. It makes visible which combinations of conditions can lead to damage. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 2-6 h | 5-20 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 3-8 | 3-20 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Fault Tree, Critical Paths, Cause Hypotheses, Control Actions | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | RiskRoot causeSafety | EstimationEffortRisk | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |