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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 60-120 min | 5-20 min | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 2-8 | 3-20 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | EstimationEffortRisk | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange |