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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 5-20 min | 1-5 Tage | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 3-20 | Nutzertraffic | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | EstimationEffortRisk | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |