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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 5-20 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 3-20 | 2-6 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | EstimationEffortRisk | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |