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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Systems Thinking Leverage Points |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | Leverage Points show exactly where interventions in a system produce a disproportionate effect. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a leverage map and action strategy. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | High | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 5-20 min | Half day | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 3-20 | 3-12 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Leverage Map, Action Strategy | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | EstimationEffortRisk | Systems thinkingChangeStrategy | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange |