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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Systems Thinking Intervention Mapping |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | Intervention Mapping translates a need for change into a planned, evaluable program. The method connects target group, determinants, actions, and measurement into a traceable chain. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | High | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 5-20 min | 1-5 Tage | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 3-20 | 4-12 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Logic Model, Change Objectives, Intervention Components, Evaluation Plan | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | EstimationEffortRisk | ChangeSystems thinkingCapability | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange |