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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Agile Ideal Days |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 5-20 min | 15-60 min | 15-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 3-20 | 2-9 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity Caveats | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes |
Tags1 shared | EstimationExpertsForecasting | EstimationEffortRisk | EstimationEffortAgile | EstimationUncertaintyRisk |