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Criterion
Paper illustration for Wideband Delphi.
Decision Making
Wideband Delphi
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration of Business Model Stress Test with its method-specific working model.
Business Strategy
Business Model Stress Test
Purposedifferent
A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.A Business Model Stress Test checks how well a business model holds up under pressure and headwinds. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a stress-test report and action plan per scenario.
Complexitydifferent
HighHighLowHigh
Timedifferent
1-4 h or multiple rounds1-4 Wochen5-20 minHalf day
Participantsdifferent
4-12 Experten6-30 Experten3-203-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncAsyncWorkshopWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus NotesExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesEffort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsStress Test Report, Action Plan per Scenario
Tagsno overlap
EstimationExpertsForecasting
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
EstimationEffortRisk
StrategyBusiness modelRiskDiagnosis
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