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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking Causal Loop Diagram |  Systems Thinking Behavior Over Time Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A Causal Loop Diagram makes feedback, reinforcement, and balance in a system legible. It uncovers side effects and self-reinforcement that stay hidden in linear explanations. | A Behavior Over Time Graph shows how a metric or observation develops over time. The method makes trends, breaks, and recurring patterns visible that get lost in snapshots. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 1-4 Wochen | 1-3 h | 20-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 1-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Causal Loop Diagram, Feedback Notes, Leverage Points | Behavior Over Time Graph, Trend Hypotheses, Key Events |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | FeedbackSystems thinkingCausalityDynamics | Systems thinkingPatternsDynamics |