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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Business Strategy Business Model Canvas |  Agile NoEstimates |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | The Business Model Canvas condenses a business model to its key building blocks and assumptions. It makes variants quickly comparable and reveals gaps before validation or implementation begins. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 1-2 h | laufend | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 2-8 | 2-12 | 1-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Business Model Canvas, Assumption List, Business Hypotheses | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | Business modelStrategyValueInnovation | EstimationForecastingFlow | ForecastingFlowDelivery |