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| Criterion |  Operations Waste Analysis |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | For a process that keeps people busy but creates little value, the method exposes waste. It directs attention to unnecessary movement, waiting times, rework, and overdelivery. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | High | High |
Timedifferent | 45-120 min | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 1-8 | 4-12 Experten | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Waste Map, Prioritized Waste, Improvement Backlog | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | WasteLeanProcess improvement | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationExpertsForecasting | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |