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Criterion
Paper illustration for Waste Analysis.
Operations
Waste Analysis
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Purposedifferent
For a process that keeps people busy but creates little value, the method exposes waste. It directs attention to unnecessary movement, waiting times, rework, and overdelivery.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumMediumLow
Timedifferent
45-120 min45-60 min15-45 min5-20 min
Participantsdifferent
2-82-81-83-20
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Waste Map, Prioritized Waste, Improvement BacklogAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingPERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk NotesEffort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets
Tagsno overlap
WasteLeanProcess improvement
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
EstimationEffortRisk
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