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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min | 10-30 min je Item | 5-20 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-10 | 1-8 | 3-20 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EstimationEffortRisk | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |