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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-4 Wochen | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-10 | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale |
Tagsno overlap | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | ForecastingFlowDelivery | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | SensemakingDecisionRationale |