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Criterion
Visual Management workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Operations
Visual Management
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Game Day workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
DevOps
Game Day
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Purposedifferent
With high tempo and many parallel topics, the method makes status, deviations, and priorities visible at a glance. It reduces search effort and prevents what matters from getting lost in daily work.A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.In preparing for rare incidents, the method tests response capability under controlled conditions. It shows where assumptions about stability, roles, and recovery are too optimistic.On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumHighMedium
Timedifferent
Ongoing10-30 min je ItemHalber Tag15-45 min
Participantsdifferent
1-201-85-201-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Visual Board, Status Indicators, Exception CuesThree-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesSimulation Notes, Gaps List, Updated RunbooksPERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes
Tagsno overlap
SignalsOperationsVisual management
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
ResilienceOperationsIncident
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
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