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| Criterion |  Operations Visual Management |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Agile NoEstimates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | With high tempo and many parallel topics, the method makes status, deviations, and priorities visible at a glance. It reduces search effort and prevents what matters from getting lost in daily work. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | Ongoing | 10-30 min je Item | 60-120 min | laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 1-20 | 1-8 | 3-10 | 2-12 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Visual Board, Status Indicators, Exception Cues | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules |
Tagsno overlap | SignalsOperationsVisual management | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | EstimationForecastingFlow |