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Criterion
Visual Management workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Operations
Visual Management
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
With high tempo and many parallel topics, the method makes status, deviations, and priorities visible at a glance. It reduces search effort and prevents what matters from getting lost in daily work.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowLowMedium
Timedifferent
Ongoing20–45 min1-5 Tage45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
1-20Small cross-functional groupNutzertraffic2-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Visual Board, Status Indicators, Exception CuesRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logInterest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning NoteAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
SignalsOperationsVisual management
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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