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Criterion
Value Stream Mapping workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Delivery
Value Stream Mapping
Paper illustration for Wideband Delphi.
Decision Making
Wideband Delphi
Paper illustration for Monte Carlo Forecasting.
Delivery
Monte Carlo Forecasting
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Purposedifferent
When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible.A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes.Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication.A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.
Complexitydifferent
MediumHighHighMedium
Timedifferent
1-3 h1-4 h or multiple rounds30-90 min Setup, danach laufend10-30 min je Item
Participantsdifferent
4-104-12 Experten1-81-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck listEstimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus NotesForecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk CommunicationThree-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes
Tagsno overlap
LeanFlowWasteDelivery
EstimationExpertsForecasting
ForecastingFlowDelivery
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
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