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Criterion
Value Stream Mapping workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Delivery
Value Stream Mapping
Paper illustration for Waste Analysis.
Operations
Waste Analysis
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration for Monte Carlo Forecasting.
Delivery
Monte Carlo Forecasting
Purposedifferent
When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible.For a process that keeps people busy but creates little value, the method exposes waste. It directs attention to unnecessary movement, waiting times, rework, and overdelivery.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowHighHigh
Timedifferent
1-3 h45-120 min1-4 Wochen30-90 min Setup, danach laufend
Participantsdifferent
4-102-86-30 Experten1-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshopAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck listWaste Map, Prioritized Waste, Improvement BacklogExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesForecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication
Tagsno overlap
LeanFlowWasteDelivery
WasteLeanProcess improvement
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
ForecastingFlowDelivery
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