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| Criterion |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making OODA Loop |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | In dynamic situations, decisions become outdated faster than they can be prepared. The OODA Loop holds observing, orienting, deciding, and acting together as a recurring rhythm so reaction does not slide into inertia. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 1-3 h | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 15-60 min je Zyklus | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 4-10 | 1-8 | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Situation Assessment, Decision Loop, Action Updates | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | LeanFlowWasteDelivery | ForecastingFlowDelivery | DecisionChangeLearningStrategy | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |