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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High | High |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 4-12 Experten | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tags1 shared | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EstimationExpertsForecasting | ForecastingFlowDelivery | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |