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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 5-20 min | 15-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 4-12 Experten | 3-20 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes |
Tags1 shared | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EstimationExpertsForecasting | EstimationEffortRisk | EstimationUncertaintyRisk |