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Criterion
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Paper illustration for Waste Analysis.
Operations
Waste Analysis
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Value Stream Mapping workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Delivery
Value Stream Mapping
Purposedifferent
A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.For a process that keeps people busy but creates little value, the method exposes waste. It directs attention to unnecessary movement, waiting times, rework, and overdelivery.When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowLowMedium
Timedifferent
10-30 min je Item45-120 min5-20 min1-3 h
Participantsdifferent
1-82-83-204-10
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshopWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesWaste Map, Prioritized Waste, Improvement BacklogEffort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsCurrent-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
WasteLeanProcess improvement
EstimationEffortRisk
LeanFlowWasteDelivery
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