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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High | High |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 30-90 min | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-10 | 1-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | ForecastingFlowDelivery | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |