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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |  Operations Gemba Walk |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. | When there is uncertainty about the real course of a process, the method brings observation to the place where work happens. It combines perception, follow-up questions, and process knowledge so decisions rest on actual workflows instead of assumptions. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 1-3 h | 30-120 min | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 4-10 | 2-6 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list | Observation Notes, Improvement Ideas | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | LeanFlowWasteDelivery | LeanObservationProcessOperations | ForecastingFlowDelivery |