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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Agile Ideal Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 1-3 h | 5-20 min | 15-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 4-10 | 3-20 | 2-9 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity Caveats |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | LeanFlowWasteDelivery | EstimationEffortRisk | EstimationEffortAgile |