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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Operations Process Mapping |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Operations After-Action Review |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | With a confusing workflow that has many handoffs, the method makes the actual process visible. It shows where work is passed on, delayed, or duplicated, so improvement targets the right spots. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | After missions or project phases with unclear outcomes, the method makes visible what actually happened and what can be learned from it. It separates course, effect, and causes so experience turns into solid improvement. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 1-3 h | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 20-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-10 | 1-8 | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Process Map, Handoff List, Improvement Backlog | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Lessons learned, Action items, Event summary |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ProcessOperationsImprovement | ForecastingFlowDelivery | LearningOperationsImprovement |