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Criterion
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Paper illustration for Monte Carlo Forecasting.
Delivery
Monte Carlo Forecasting
Paper illustration for Waste Analysis.
Operations
Waste Analysis
Value Stream Mapping workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Delivery
Value Stream Mapping
Purposedifferent
A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication.For a process that keeps people busy but creates little value, the method exposes waste. It directs attention to unnecessary movement, waiting times, rework, and overdelivery.When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible.
Complexitydifferent
MediumHighLowMedium
Timedifferent
10-30 min je Item30-90 min Setup, danach laufend45-120 min1-3 h
Participantsdifferent
1-81-82-84-10
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesForecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk CommunicationWaste Map, Prioritized Waste, Improvement BacklogCurrent-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
ForecastingFlowDelivery
WasteLeanProcess improvement
LeanFlowWasteDelivery
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