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Criterion
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Paper illustration for Monte Carlo Forecasting.
Delivery
Monte Carlo Forecasting
Paper illustration for Waste Analysis.
Operations
Waste Analysis
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Purposedifferent
A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication.For a process that keeps people busy but creates little value, the method exposes waste. It directs attention to unnecessary movement, waiting times, rework, and overdelivery.On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.
Complexitydifferent
MediumHighLowMedium
Timedifferent
10-30 min je Item30-90 min Setup, danach laufend45-120 min15-45 min
Participantsdifferent
1-81-82-81-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesForecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk CommunicationWaste Map, Prioritized Waste, Improvement BacklogPERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
ForecastingFlowDelivery
WasteLeanProcess improvement
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
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