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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Business Strategy GAP Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | GAP Analysis compares the current state with a target picture and makes the distance manageable. It becomes useful when, ahead of new initiatives, it must become clear which capabilities, processes, or resources are missing. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 0.5-2 Tage | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 4-12 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Gap Matrix, Action Plan, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ForecastingFlowDelivery | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | StrategyAnalysisPlanning |