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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Systems Thinking Leverage Points |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | Leverage Points show exactly where interventions in a system produce a disproportionate effect. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a leverage map and action strategy. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High | High |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | Half day | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 3-12 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Leverage Map, Action Strategy | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ForecastingFlowDelivery | Systems thinkingChangeStrategy | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange |