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| Criterion |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Operations Gemba Walk |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When there is uncertainty about the real course of a process, the method brings observation to the place where work happens. It combines perception, follow-up questions, and process knowledge so decisions rest on actual workflows instead of assumptions. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 10-30 min je Item | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 30-120 min | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 2-6 | 4-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Observation Notes, Improvement Ideas | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ForecastingFlowDelivery | LeanObservationProcessOperations | LeanFlowWasteDelivery |